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Brescia vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Palermo
Palermo
A. Donnarumma 29', 27'
S. Moreo 86'
9/25/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 5Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Brescia41%
×Draw26%
Palermo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.42
Palermo
1.25

Brescia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 95 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.48
Palermo
1.32

allows per match

Brescia
1.18
Palermo
1.36

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Palermo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
67%
Brescia or Palermo
74%
Draw or Palermo
59%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
19%
Palermo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
76%
Brescia 2+ goals
41%
Brescia 3+ goals
17%
Palermo 1+ goals
71%
Palermo 2+ goals
36%
Palermo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
55%
Palermo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.18 · 118 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.36 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.48 + Palermo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Palermo attack 1.32 + Brescia defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brescia scores more
41%
level
26%
Palermo scores more
33%

Brescia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
A. Donnarumma↳ J. Dall'Oglio
29'
A. Donnarumma
40'
Ernesto Torregrossa
46'
H. Aleesami← R. Murawski
46'
G. Puşcaş← A. Mazzotta
51'
Emanuele Ndoj
65'
S. Moreo← A. Salvi
77'
Haitam Aleesami
80'
A. Matějů← S. Sabelli
83'
L. Morosini← E. Torregrossa
86'
S. Moreo
89'
A. Cistana← E. Ndoj
90'
Sandro Tonali

Possession

40%Brescia

Shots

9Brescia

Statistics

BresciaPalermo
Overview
40%Possession60%
9Total Shots7
8Corners2
19Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots7
5On Target5
4Off Target2
Passing
40%Possession60%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Serie B: Brescia 2–1 Palermo

Brescia beat Palermo 2-1 in Serie B on September 25, 2018.

Goals: A. Donnarumma (27', 29'), S. Moreo (86').

Palermo controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.