Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brescia vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Padova
Padova
A. Donnarumma 89', 86' (pen), 72'
L. Tremolada 61'
D. Cappelletti 16'
10/7/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 7Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Brescia47%
×Draw25%
Padova28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.56
Padova
1.13

Brescia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 37 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.48
Padova
1.08

allows per match

Brescia
1.18
Padova
1.65

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Padova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
72%
Brescia or Padova
75%
Draw or Padova
53%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
24%
Padova wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
79%
Brescia 2+ goals
46%
Brescia 3+ goals
21%
Padova 1+ goals
68%
Padova 2+ goals
31%
Padova 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
63%
Padova (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.18 · 118 matches

Padova away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.48 + Padova defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Padova attack 1.08 + Brescia defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brescia scores more
47%
level
25%
Padova scores more
28%

Brescia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
D. Cappelletti↳ P. Ceccaroni
43'
A. Cistana← D. Gastaldello
46'
L. Tremolada← A. Martinelli
58'
A. Cisco← F. Bonazzoli
59'
Andrea Cisco
61'
L. Tremolada↳ S. Sabelli
65'
S. Salviato← T. Trevisan
72'
A. Donnarumma↳ S. Tonali
73'
M. Minesso← N. Pulzetti
76'
Simone Romagnoli
84'
Stefano Sabelli
86'
A. DonnarummaPenalty
89'
L. Morosini← A. Donnarumma
89'
A. Donnarumma↳ L. Tremolada

Possession

56%Brescia

Shots

10Brescia

Statistics

BresciaPadova
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots7
8Corners6
18Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots7
6On Target1
4Off Target6
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
7Offsides0

Serie B: Brescia 4–1 Padova

Brescia beat Padova 4-1 in Serie B on October 7, 2018.

Goals: D. Cappelletti (16'), L. Tremolada (61'), A. Donnarumma (72', 86' pen, 89').

Brescia controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.