Brescia 0–2 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brescia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Monza

José Machín 55'

C. Gytkjær 40'

12/5/2021

Serie B · Round 16Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Brescia38%

×Draw27%

Monza35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BresciaExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.23

Brescia

1.29

Monza

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 61 away

1.47

creates per match

1.31

1.15

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Brescia

1.47

Monza

1.31

allows per match

Brescia

1.15

Monza

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par

Monza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Brescia or draw

65%

Brescia or Monza

73%

Draw or Monza

62%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+

17%

Monza wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals

72%

Brescia 2+ goals

37%

Brescia 3+ goals

14%

Monza 1+ goals

71%

Monza 2+ goals

35%

Monza 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)

52%

Monza (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.15 · 118 matches

Monza away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.47 + Monza defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Monza attack 1.31 + Brescia defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brescia scores more

38%

level

27%

Monza scores more

35%

Brescia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

L. Marrone

Monza · D

7.9

Match Events

40'

C. Gytkjær

46'

R. Palacio← S. Moreo

55'

José Machín↳ M. Valoti

59'

T. van de Looi← A. Matějů

59'

R. Bajić← F. Jagiełło

64'

M. Sampirisi← Pedro Pereira

72'

P. Ciurria← José Machín

72'

L. Mazzitelli← A. Colpani

74'

G. Olzer← M. Léris

79'

D. Bettella← M. DAlessandro

79'

M. Finotto← C. Gytkjær

90+4'

Massimo Bertagnoli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BresciaMonza

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots11

3Corners7

22Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots11

2On Target2

6Off Target3

6Blocked6

5Inside Box7

9Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

359Total Passes522

276Accurate Passes435

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

22Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Brescia vs Monza

Monza beat Brescia 2-0 in Serie B on December 5, 2021.

Goals: C. Gytkjær (40'), José Machín (55').

Monza controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.

Brescia vs Monza — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Brescia vs Monza