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Brescia vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Brescia
Brescia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
10/21/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 8Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Brescia31%
×Draw26%
Fiorentina43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.21
Fiorentina
1.46

Fiorentina creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 136 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.00
Fiorentina
1.24

allows per match

Brescia
1.68
Fiorentina
1.43

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
57%
Brescia or Fiorentina
74%
Draw or Fiorentina
69%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
13%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
70%
Brescia 2+ goals
34%
Brescia 3+ goals
12%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
77%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
43%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
42%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.43 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.00 + Fiorentina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fiorentina attack 1.24 + Brescia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brescia scores more
31%
level
26%
Fiorentina scores more
43%

Fiorentina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brescia vs Fiorentina

Brescia and Fiorentina drew 0-0 in Serie A on October 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.