Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brescia vs Carpi — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Carpi
Carpi
2/9/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 23Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Brescia52%
×Draw23%
Carpi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.78
Carpi
1.14

Brescia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 18 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.50
Carpi
1.11

allows per match

Brescia
1.17
Carpi
2.06

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Carpi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Carpi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
76%
Brescia or Carpi
77%
Draw or Carpi
48%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
29%
Carpi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
83%
Brescia 2+ goals
53%
Brescia 3+ goals
26%
Carpi 1+ goals
68%
Carpi 2+ goals
32%
Carpi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
68%
Carpi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Carpi away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.50 + Carpi defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.78

Carpi attack 1.11 + Brescia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brescia scores more
52%
level
23%
Carpi scores more
24%

Brescia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Brescia 3–1 Carpi

Brescia beat Carpi 3-1 in Serie B on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.