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Brescia vs Cagliari — Serie A 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cagliari
Cagliari
1/19/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 20Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brescia39%
×Draw26%
Cagliari36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.40
Cagliari
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 118 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.11
Cagliari
0.90

allows per match

Brescia
1.79
Cagliari
1.68

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
64%
Brescia or Cagliari
74%
Draw or Cagliari
61%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
18%
Cagliari wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
75%
Brescia 2+ goals
41%
Brescia 3+ goals
17%
Cagliari 1+ goals
74%
Cagliari 2+ goals
39%
Cagliari 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
52%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.68 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.11 + Cagliari defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cagliari attack 0.90 + Brescia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brescia scores more
39%
level
26%
Cagliari scores more
36%

Brescia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brescia vs Cagliari

Brescia and Cagliari drew 2-2 in Serie A on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.