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Brescia vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

Brescia
Brescia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Atalanta
Atalanta
11/30/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Brescia22%
×Draw23%
Atalanta55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.04
Atalanta
1.79

Atalanta creates 72% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 135 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.00
Atalanta
1.91

allows per match

Brescia
1.68
Atalanta
1.07

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
45%
Brescia or Atalanta
77%
Draw or Atalanta
78%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
8%
Atalanta wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
65%
Brescia 2+ goals
28%
Brescia 3+ goals
9%
Atalanta 1+ goals
83%
Atalanta 2+ goals
53%
Atalanta 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
29%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.07 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.00 + Atalanta defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Atalanta attack 1.91 + Brescia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brescia scores more
22%
level
23%
Atalanta scores more
55%

Atalanta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brescia vs Atalanta

Atalanta beat Brescia 3-0 in Serie A on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.