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Brescia U19 vs Udinese U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Brescia U19
Brescia U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Udinese U19
Udinese U19
3/9/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 22Centro Sportivo San Filippo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Brescia U1941%
×Draw24%
Udinese U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia U19
1.63
Udinese U19
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 54 away

creates per match

Brescia U19
1.45
Udinese U19
1.69

allows per match

Brescia U19
1.32
Udinese U19
1.80

finishing

Brescia U19+0.00on par
Udinese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia U19 ↓

Udinese U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Brescia U19 or draw
65%
Brescia U19 or Udinese U19
76%
Draw or Udinese U19
59%

Winning margin

Brescia U19 wins by 2+
21%
Udinese U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Brescia U19 1+ goals
80%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
48%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
22%
Udinese U19 1+ goals
78%
Udinese U19 2+ goals
44%
Udinese U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Udinese U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

Udinese U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.80 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia U19 attack 1.45 + Udinese U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.63

Udinese U19 attack 1.69 + Brescia U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brescia U19 scores more
41%
level
24%
Udinese U19 scores more
35%

Brescia U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brescia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Brescia U19 1–1 Udinese U19

Brescia U19 and Udinese U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo San Filippo in Brescia.