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Brescia U19 vs Parma U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Brescia U19
Brescia U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Parma U19
Parma U19
10/25/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 6Centro Sportivo San Filippo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Brescia U1929%
×Draw24%
Parma U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia U19
1.24
Parma U19
1.66

Parma U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 70 away

creates per match

Brescia U19
1.45
Parma U19
2.00

allows per match

Brescia U19
1.32
Parma U19
1.03

finishing

Brescia U19+0.00on par
Parma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia U19 ↓

Parma U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brescia U19 or draw
53%
Brescia U19 or Parma U19
76%
Draw or Parma U19
71%

Winning margin

Brescia U19 wins by 2+
12%
Parma U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Brescia U19 1+ goals
71%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
35%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
13%
Parma U19 1+ goals
81%
Parma U19 2+ goals
49%
Parma U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
38%
Parma U19 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

Parma U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia U19 attack 1.45 + Parma U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.24

Parma U19 attack 2.00 + Brescia U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brescia U19 scores more
29%
level
24%
Parma U19 scores more
47%

Parma U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brescia U19 vs Parma U19

Parma U19 beat Brescia U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo San Filippo in Brescia.