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Brescia U19 vs Modena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Brescia U19
Brescia U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Modena U19
Modena U19
G. Zanini 21'
J. Diarra 48'
Y. Goulart 43'
C. Molara 22' (pen)
2/14/2026Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Brescia U1939%
×Draw25%
Modena U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia U19
1.50
Modena U19
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

creates per match

Brescia U19
1.45
Modena U19
1.55

allows per match

Brescia U19
1.32
Modena U19
1.55

finishing

Brescia U19+0.00on par
Modena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia U19 ↓

Modena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brescia U19 or draw
64%
Brescia U19 or Modena U19
75%
Draw or Modena U19
61%

Winning margin

Brescia U19 wins by 2+
19%
Modena U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Brescia U19 1+ goals
78%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
44%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
19%
Modena U19 1+ goals
76%
Modena U19 2+ goals
42%
Modena U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Modena U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

Modena U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia U19 attack 1.45 + Modena U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Modena U19 attack 1.55 + Brescia U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brescia U19 scores more
39%
level
25%
Modena U19 scores more
36%

Brescia U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brescia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
G. Zanini
22'
C. MolaraPenalty
43'
Y. Goulart
48'
J. Diarra
Brescia
Modena
L. Belingheri
Manager: L. Belingheri
David Rodríguez
Manager: David Rodríguez

Campionato Primavera - 2: Brescia U19 1–3 Modena U19

Modena U19 beat Brescia U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 14, 2026.

Goals: G. Zanini (21'), C. Molara (22' pen), Y. Goulart (43'), J. Diarra (48').