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Brescia U19 vs Cremonese U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Brescia U19
Brescia U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
12/22/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 13Centro Sportivo San Filippo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Brescia U1927%
×Draw25%
Cremonese U1949%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia U19
1.14
Cremonese U19
1.64

Cremonese U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 55 away

creates per match

Brescia U19
1.45
Cremonese U19
1.96

allows per match

Brescia U19
1.32
Cremonese U19
0.82

finishing

Brescia U19+0.00on par
Cremonese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia U19 ↓

Cremonese U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brescia U19 or draw
51%
Brescia U19 or Cremonese U19
75%
Draw or Cremonese U19
73%

Winning margin

Brescia U19 wins by 2+
10%
Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Brescia U19 1+ goals
68%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
32%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
11%
Cremonese U19 1+ goals
81%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
49%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

Cremonese U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia U19 attack 1.45 + Cremonese U19 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cremonese U19 attack 1.96 + Brescia U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brescia U19 scores more
27%
level
25%
Cremonese U19 scores more
49%

Cremonese U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Brescia U19 0–1 Cremonese U19

Cremonese U19 beat Brescia U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 22, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo San Filippo in Brescia.