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Brescia U19 vs Alessandria U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Brescia U19
Brescia U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Alessandria U19
Alessandria U19
12/9/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 11Centro Sportivo San Filippo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Brescia U1954%
×Draw22%
Alessandria U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia U19
1.94
Alessandria U19
1.24

Brescia U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 43 away

creates per match

Brescia U19
1.45
Alessandria U19
1.16

allows per match

Brescia U19
1.32
Alessandria U19
2.44

finishing

Brescia U19+0.00on par
Alessandria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia U19 ↓

Alessandria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Brescia U19 or draw
76%
Brescia U19 or Alessandria U19
78%
Draw or Alessandria U19
46%

Winning margin

Brescia U19 wins by 2+
31%
Alessandria U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brescia U19 1+ goals
86%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
58%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
30%
Alessandria U19 1+ goals
71%
Alessandria U19 2+ goals
35%
Alessandria U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

Alessandria U19 away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia U19 attack 1.45 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

Alessandria U19 attack 1.16 + Brescia U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brescia U19 scores more
54%
level
22%
Alessandria U19 scores more
24%

Brescia U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brescia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brescia U19 vs Alessandria U19

Brescia U19 beat Alessandria U19 4-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo San Filippo in Brescia.