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Brescia U19 vs AlbinoLeffe U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Brescia U19
Brescia U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AlbinoLeffe U19
AlbinoLeffe U19
1/17/2026Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Brescia U1946%
×Draw24%
AlbinoLeffe U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia U19
1.67
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.29

Brescia U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 63 away

creates per match

Brescia U19
1.45
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.25

allows per match

Brescia U19
1.32
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.90

finishing

Brescia U19+0.00on par
AlbinoLeffe U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia U19 ↓

AlbinoLeffe U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Brescia U19 or draw
70%
Brescia U19 or AlbinoLeffe U19
76%
Draw or AlbinoLeffe U19
54%

Winning margin

Brescia U19 wins by 2+
24%
AlbinoLeffe U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brescia U19 1+ goals
81%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
50%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
23%
AlbinoLeffe U19 1+ goals
72%
AlbinoLeffe U19 2+ goals
37%
AlbinoLeffe U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
61%
AlbinoLeffe U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

AlbinoLeffe U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia U19 attack 1.45 + AlbinoLeffe U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

AlbinoLeffe U19 attack 1.25 + Brescia U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brescia U19 scores more
46%
level
24%
AlbinoLeffe U19 scores more
30%

Brescia U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brescia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brescia U19 vs AlbinoLeffe U19

AlbinoLeffe U19 beat Brescia U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on January 17, 2026.