Brentford 2–0 West Ham: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham

I. Toney 64'

B. Mbeumo 48'

4/10/2022

Premier League · Round 32Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Brentford52%

×Draw23%

West Ham25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.18

Brentford

1.83

West Ham

1.18

Brentford creates 55% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 35 away

1.82

creates per match

1.06

1.29

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Brentford

1.82

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Brentford

1.29

West Ham

1.85

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Brentford-0.18scores less

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

75%

Brentford or West Ham

77%

Draw or West Ham

48%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

29%

West Ham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

84%

Brentford 2+ goals

54%

Brentford 3+ goals

28%

West Ham 1+ goals

69%

West Ham 2+ goals

33%

West Ham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

68%

West Ham (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.82 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

West Ham attack 1.06 + Brentford defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brentford scores more

52%

level

23%

West Ham scores more

25%

Brentford at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

I. Toney

Brentford · F

8.3

Match Events

29'

I. Diop← K. Zouma

48'

B. Mbeumo↳ I. Toney

57'

S. Benrahma← M. Lanzini

64'

I. Toney↳ B. Mbeumo

66'

Michail Antonio

66'

N. Vlašić← M. Antonio

69'

M. Jensen← V. Janelt

78'

Sergi Canós← B. Mbeumo

83'

M. Rasmussen← K. Ajer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordWest

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots5

4Corners6

2Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots5

7On Target1

3Off Target3

5Blocked1

12Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

477Total Passes540

398Accurate Passes455

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

2Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2