Brentford 0–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

9/21/2019

Championship · Round 8Griffin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Brentford54%

×Draw25%

Stoke City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.93

Brentford

1.64

Stoke City

0.93

Brentford creates 76% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 178 away

1.93

creates per match

0.99

0.87

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Brentford

1.93

Stoke City

0.99

allows per match

Brentford

0.87

Stoke City

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

79%

Brentford or Stoke City

75%

Draw or Stoke City

46%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

29%

Stoke City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

81%

Brentford 2+ goals

49%

Brentford 3+ goals

23%

Stoke City 1+ goals

61%

Stoke City 2+ goals

24%

Stoke City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

72%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.93 + Stoke City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.64

Stoke City attack 0.99 + Brentford defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brentford scores more

54%

level

25%

Stoke City scores more

21%

Brentford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Batth

Stoke City · D

7.8

Match Events

22'

Lee Gregory

36'

D. Batth← L. Lindsay

63'

N. Karelis← B. Mbeumo

65'

K. Mokotjo← M. Jensen

73'

78'

79'

82'

90+1'

J. Clarke← Sergi Canós

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordStoke

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots11

4Corners5

13Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target4

7Off Target3

3Blocked4

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box8

Passing

64%Possession36%

573Total Passes315

486Accurate Passes237

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1