Brentford 1–0 Preston: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

O. Watkins 4'

7/15/2020

Championship · Round 44Griffin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Brentford54%

×Draw25%

Preston22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.95

Brentford

1.65

Preston

0.95

Brentford creates 74% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 183 away

1.93

creates per match

1.03

0.87

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Brentford

1.93

Preston

1.03

allows per match

Brentford

0.87

Preston

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par

Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

78%

Brentford or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

46%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

29%

Preston wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

81%

Brentford 2+ goals

49%

Brentford 3+ goals

23%

Preston 1+ goals

61%

Preston 2+ goals

25%

Preston 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

71%

Preston (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Preston away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.93 + Preston defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.65

Preston attack 1.03 + Brentford defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brentford scores more

54%

level

25%

Preston scores more

22%

Brentford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

David Raya

Brentford · G

8.1

Match Events

4'

O. Watkins↳ E. Marcondes

53'

Joe Rafferty

63'

Saïd Benrahma

67'

J. Dasilva← M. Jensen

74'

B. Potts← A. Browne

74'

J. Stockley← D. Fisher

75'

J. Valencia← B. Mbeumo

75'

S. Sinclair← T. Barkhuizen

84'

J. Harrop← R. Ledson

84'

B. Bodin← S. Maguire

88'

J. Žambůrek← E. Marcondes

90'

Ollie Watkins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordPreston

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots8

4Corners6

15Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots8

3On Target4

9Off Target1

2Blocked3

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

460Total Passes285

364Accurate Passes184

79%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2