Brentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nottingham Forest

A. Elanga 51'

O. Aina 38'

12/21/2024

Premier League · Round 17Gtech Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Brentford53%

×Draw23%

Nottingham Forest24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.15

Brentford

1.83

Nottingham Forest

1.15

Brentford creates 59% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 37 away

1.85

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Brentford

1.85

Nottingham Forest

1.00

allows per match

Brentford

1.29

Nottingham Forest

1.80

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

Brentford-0.26scores less

Nottingham Forest+0.41scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

76%

Brentford or Nottingham Forest

77%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

47%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

30%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

84%

Brentford 2+ goals

54%

Brentford 3+ goals

28%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

68%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

32%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

69%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 27 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.85 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Nottingham Forest attack 1.00 + Brentford defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brentford scores more

53%

level

23%

Nottingham Forest scores more

24%

Brentford at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

B. Mbeumo

Brentford · F

8.3

Match Events

27'

38'

40'

51'

55'

57'

64'

64'

N. Domínguez← E. Anderson

67'

M. Roerslev← K. Ajer

67'

P. Maghoma← V. Janelt

75'

Jota Silva← M. Gibbs-White

79'

Jota Silva

81'

Fábio Carvalho← K. Schade

84'

Nicolás Domínguez

87'

Mikkel Damsgaard

90+6'

Y. Konak← M. Roerslev

90+2'

H. Toffolo← N. Williams

90+2'

T. Awoniyi← C. Wood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordNottingham

Overview

64%Possession36%

7Total Shots10

0.72Expected Goals (xG)0.90

9Corners5

10Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots10

3On Target6

2Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box6

0Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

532Total Passes303

452Accurate Passes236

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.98Goals Prevented0.98

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3