Brentford 2–1 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nottingham Forest

J. Dasilva 90+4'

I. Toney 82'

Danilo 45+1'

4/29/2023

Premier League · Round 34Gtech Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Brentford54%

×Draw23%

Nottingham Forest24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.16

Brentford

1.86

Nottingham Forest

1.16

Brentford creates 60% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

1.89

creates per match

1.00

1.31

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Brentford

1.89

Nottingham Forest

1.00

allows per match

Brentford

1.31

Nottingham Forest

1.83

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Brentford-0.24scores less

Nottingham Forest+0.39scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

76%

Brentford or Nottingham Forest

77%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

46%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

30%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

84%

Brentford 2+ goals

55%

Brentford 3+ goals

28%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

69%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

32%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

69%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.89 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.86

Nottingham Forest attack 1.00 + Brentford defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brentford scores more

54%

level

23%

Nottingham Forest scores more

24%

Brentford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Dasilva

Brentford · M

7.7

Match Events

29'

34'

45+1'

54'

56'

60'

60'

J. Dasilva← M. Damsgaard

66'

C. Kouyaté← B. Johnson

71'

S. Baptiste← M. Jensen

71'

F. Onyeka← V. Janelt

76'

S. Ghoddos← K. Schade

81'

R. Yates← O. Mangala

82'

I. Toney

90+4'

J. Dasilva↳ F. Onyeka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordNottingham

Overview

69%Possession31%

14Total Shots5

1.62Expected Goals (xG)0.72

6Corners0

6Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots5

8On Target3

3Off Target1

3Blocked1

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

550Total Passes255

466Accurate Passes174

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1