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Brentford vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Brentford
Brentford
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Cardiff
Cardiff
3/13/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Griffin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Brentford54%
×Draw24%
Cardiff22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brentford
1.75
Cardiff
1.03

Brentford creates 70% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 145 away

creates per match

Brentford
1.95
Cardiff
1.15

allows per match

Brentford
0.92
Cardiff
1.54

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brentford or draw
78%
Brentford or Cardiff
76%
Draw or Cardiff
46%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+
30%
Cardiff wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals
83%
Brentford 2+ goals
52%
Brentford 3+ goals
25%
Cardiff 1+ goals
64%
Cardiff 2+ goals
28%
Cardiff 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)
71%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.95 + Cardiff defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cardiff attack 1.15 + Brentford defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brentford scores more
54%
level
24%
Cardiff scores more
22%

Brentford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brentford vs Cardiff

Cardiff beat Brentford 3-1 in Championship on March 13, 2018.

The match was played at Griffin Park in London.