Breno 0–0 Montecchio Maggiore: Result & Stats

Breno

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Montecchio Maggiore

12/16/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Breno36%

×Draw26%

Montecchio Maggiore38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrenoExpected goals in this matchMontecchio Maggiore

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.33

Breno

1.29

Montecchio Maggiore

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

1.12

creates per match

1.32

1.35

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Breno

1.12

Montecchio Maggiore

1.32

allows per match

Breno

1.35

Montecchio Maggiore

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breno+0.00on par

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breno ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Breno or draw

62%

Breno or Montecchio Maggiore

74%

Draw or Montecchio Maggiore

64%

Winning margin

Breno wins by 2+

16%

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Breno 1+ goals

72%

Breno 2+ goals

37%

Breno 3+ goals

14%

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

74%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

38%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Breno (draw refunded)

49%

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breno at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breno attack 1.12 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Breno defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Breno scores more

36%

level

26%

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

38%

Montecchio Maggiore at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff