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Breno vs Este — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Breno
Breno
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Este
Este
10/15/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Breno35%
×Draw28%
Este37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breno
1.18
Este
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Breno
1.12
Este
1.09

allows per match

Breno
1.35
Este
1.24

finishing

Breno+0.00on par
Este+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breno ↓

Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Breno or draw
63%
Breno or Este
72%
Draw or Este
65%

Winning margin

Breno wins by 2+
15%
Este wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Breno 1+ goals
69%
Breno 2+ goals
33%
Breno 3+ goals
12%
Este 1+ goals
70%
Este 2+ goals
34%
Este 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Breno (draw refunded)
49%
Este (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breno at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Este away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breno attack 1.12 + Este defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Este attack 1.09 + Breno defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Breno scores more
35%
level
28%
Este scores more
37%

Este at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Breno vs Este

Este beat Breno 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara in Breno.