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Breno vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Breno
Breno
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
M. Tardivo 29'
G. Marangon 14'
L. Caprioni 3'
3/23/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 28Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Breno31%
×Draw26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breno
1.18
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.41

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Breno
1.12
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Breno
1.35
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Breno+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breno ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Breno or draw
58%
Breno or Dolomiti Bellunesi
74%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
69%

Winning margin

Breno wins by 2+
13%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Breno 1+ goals
69%
Breno 2+ goals
33%
Breno 3+ goals
12%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
76%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
41%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Breno (draw refunded)
43%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breno at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breno attack 1.12 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Breno defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Breno scores more
31%
level
26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
42%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. Caprioni
14'
G. Marangon
29'
M. Tardivo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Breno 0–3 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Breno 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 23, 2024.

Goals: L. Caprioni (3'), G. Marangon (14'), M. Tardivo (29').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara in Breno.