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Breno vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Breno
Breno
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chions
Chions
S. Kasa 80'
N. Verzeni 58'
D. Vita 48'
F. Pierantozzi 37'
E. Valenta 26'
5/5/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Breno43%
×Draw26%
Chions32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breno
1.48
Chions
1.23

Breno creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 50 away

creates per match

Breno
1.12
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Breno
1.35
Chions
1.84

finishing

Breno+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breno ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Breno or draw
68%
Breno or Chions
74%
Draw or Chions
57%

Winning margin

Breno wins by 2+
21%
Chions wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Breno 1+ goals
77%
Breno 2+ goals
43%
Breno 3+ goals
19%
Chions 1+ goals
71%
Chions 2+ goals
35%
Chions 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Breno (draw refunded)
58%
Chions (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breno at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breno attack 1.12 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chions attack 1.10 + Breno defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Breno scores more
43%
level
26%
Chions scores more
32%

Breno at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Breno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
E. Valenta
37'
F. Pierantozzi
48'
D. Vita
58'
N. Verzeni
80'
S. Kasa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Breno 4–1 Chions

Breno beat Chions 4-1 in Serie D - Girone C on May 5, 2024.

Goals: E. Valenta (26'), F. Pierantozzi (37'), D. Vita (48'), N. Verzeni (58'), S. Kasa (80').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara in Breno.