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Bremer SV vs Süderelbe — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bremer SV
Bremer SV
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Süderelbe
Süderelbe
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SPA Hohweg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bremer SV59%
×Draw17%
Süderelbe23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bremer SV
3.04
Süderelbe
1.92

Bremer SV creates 58% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bremer SV
1.83
Süderelbe
1.00

allows per match

Bremer SV
2.83
Süderelbe
4.25

finishing

Bremer SV+0.00on par
Süderelbe+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bremer SV ↓

Süderelbe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Bremer SV or draw
77%
Bremer SV or Süderelbe
83%
Draw or Süderelbe
41%

Winning margin

Bremer SV wins by 2+
40%
Süderelbe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bremer SV 1+ goals
95%
Bremer SV 2+ goals
80%
Bremer SV 3+ goals
57%
Süderelbe 1+ goals
85%
Süderelbe 2+ goals
57%
Süderelbe 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Bremer SV (draw refunded)
72%
Süderelbe (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bremer SV at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Süderelbe away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bremer SV attack 1.83 + Süderelbe defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.04

Süderelbe attack 1.00 + Bremer SV defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bremer SV scores more
59%
level
17%
Süderelbe scores more
23%

Bremer SV at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bremer SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Bremer SV 5–3 Süderelbe

Bremer SV beat Süderelbe 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at SPA Hohweg Kunstrasen in Bremen.