Bremer SV vs SC Paderborn 07 — DFB Pokal 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Bremer SV1%
SC Paderborn 0795%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
SC Paderborn 07 creates 651% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over92
- Under8
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bremer SV ↓
Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 54% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bremer SV at home — creates 0.00, concedes 7.00 · 3 matches
SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bremer SV attack 0.00 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.71
SC Paderborn 07 attack 3.67 + Bremer SV defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 5.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 95%?"
SC Paderborn 07 at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 95% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small samplePossession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Bremer SV host SC Paderborn 07 on Sunday, 18 August 2024 at 13:30. The match is part of the DFB Pokal 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Bremer SV vs SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07 beat Bremer SV 4-0 in DFB Pokal on August 18, 2024.
Goals: A. Grimaldi (21', 58'), S. Castañeda (51'), S. Michel (52').
SC Paderborn 07 controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 10.
The match was played at Stadion am Panzenberg in Bremen.