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Bremer SV vs Borussia Hildesheim — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bremer SV
Bremer SV
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Borussia Hildesheim
Borussia Hildesheim
V. Tunc 87'
L. Mittelstadt 34'
L. G. Schmidt 26'
A. Diedhiou 11'
C. Christel 42'
E. Yilmaz 40'
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SPA Hohweg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bremer SV26%
×Draw19%
Borussia Hildesheim55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bremer SV
1.65
Borussia Hildesheim
2.46

Borussia Hildesheim creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bremer SV
1.63
Borussia Hildesheim
2.17

allows per match

Bremer SV
2.75
Borussia Hildesheim
1.67

finishing

Bremer SV+0.00on par
Borussia Hildesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bremer SV ↓

Borussia Hildesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Bremer SV or draw
45%
Bremer SV or Borussia Hildesheim
81%
Draw or Borussia Hildesheim
74%

Winning margin

Bremer SV wins by 2+
12%
Borussia Hildesheim wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Bremer SV 1+ goals
81%
Bremer SV 2+ goals
49%
Bremer SV 3+ goals
23%
Borussia Hildesheim 1+ goals
91%
Borussia Hildesheim 2+ goals
70%
Borussia Hildesheim 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Bremer SV (draw refunded)
32%
Borussia Hildesheim (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bremer SV at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

Borussia Hildesheim away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bremer SV attack 1.63 + Borussia Hildesheim defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Borussia Hildesheim attack 2.17 + Bremer SV defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bremer SV scores more
26%
level
19%
Borussia Hildesheim scores more
55%

Borussia Hildesheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Borussia Hildesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
A. Diedhiou
26'
L. G. Schmidt
34'
L. Mittelstadt
40'
E. Yilmaz
42'
C. Christel
87'
V. Tunc
Bremer
Borussia
S. Kmieć
Manager: S. Kmieć
M. Vucinovic
Manager: M. Vucinovic

Friendlies Clubs: Bremer SV 4–2 Borussia Hildesheim

Bremer SV beat Borussia Hildesheim 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Diedhiou (11'), L. G. Schmidt (26'), L. Mittelstadt (34'), E. Yilmaz (40'), C. Christel (42'), V. Tunc (87').

The match was played at SPA Hohweg Kunstrasen in Bremen.