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Breitenrain vs Zürich II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Breitenrain
Breitenrain
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zürich II
Zürich II
5/2/20261. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 30Sportplatz Spitalacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Breitenrain47%
×Draw23%
Zürich II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breitenrain
1.85
Zürich II
1.46

Breitenrain creates 27% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 105 away

creates per match

Breitenrain
1.90
Zürich II
1.51

allows per match

Breitenrain
1.40
Zürich II
1.80

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par
Zürich II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

Zürich II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw
69%
Breitenrain or Zürich II
77%
Draw or Zürich II
53%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+
26%
Zürich II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals
84%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
55%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
28%
Zürich II 1+ goals
77%
Zürich II 2+ goals
43%
Zürich II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)
60%
Zürich II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 107 matches

Zürich II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 1.90 + Zürich II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Zürich II attack 1.51 + Breitenrain defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Breitenrain scores more
47%
level
23%
Zürich II scores more
31%

Breitenrain at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Breitenrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Breitenrain 3–1 Zürich II

Breitenrain beat Zürich II 3-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Sportplatz Spitalacker in Bern.