Breitenrain 1–0 Rapperswil: Result & Stats

Breitenrain

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rapperswil

2/18/2023

1. Liga Promotion · Round 19Sportplatz Spitalacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Breitenrain40%

×Draw23%

Rapperswil37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BreitenrainExpected goals in this matchRapperswil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.64

Breitenrain

1.69

Rapperswil

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 87 away

1.90

creates per match

1.87

1.40

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Breitenrain

1.90

Rapperswil

1.87

allows per match

Breitenrain

1.40

Rapperswil

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par

Rapperswil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

Rapperswil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw

63%

Breitenrain or Rapperswil

77%

Draw or Rapperswil

60%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+

20%

Rapperswil wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals

82%

Breitenrain 2+ goals

50%

Breitenrain 3+ goals

24%

Rapperswil 1+ goals

81%

Rapperswil 2+ goals

49%

Rapperswil 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)

51%

Rapperswil (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 107 matches

Rapperswil away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 1.90 + Rapperswil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rapperswil attack 1.87 + Breitenrain defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Breitenrain scores more

40%

level

23%

Rapperswil scores more

37%

Breitenrain at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Breitenrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff