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Breitenrain vs FC Chiasso — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Breitenrain
Breitenrain
FT
4 – 0
FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
L. Luthi 79'
M. Konopek 43'
F. Pereira 40'
M. Mitrovic 21' (OG)
10/9/20211. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 10Sportplatz Spitalacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Breitenrain38%
×Draw24%
FC Chiasso38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breitenrain
1.54
FC Chiasso
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 26 away

creates per match

Breitenrain
1.90
FC Chiasso
1.65

allows per match

Breitenrain
1.39
FC Chiasso
1.19

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par
FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

FC Chiasso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw
62%
Breitenrain or FC Chiasso
76%
Draw or FC Chiasso
62%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+
19%
FC Chiasso wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals
79%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
45%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
20%
FC Chiasso 1+ goals
78%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
45%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)
51%
FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.39 · 109 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 1.90 + FC Chiasso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Chiasso attack 1.65 + Breitenrain defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Breitenrain scores more
38%
level
24%
FC Chiasso scores more
38%

Breitenrain at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Breitenrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
M. MitrovicOwn goal
40'
F. Pereira
43'
M. Konopek
79'
L. Luthi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Breitenrain vs FC Chiasso

Breitenrain beat FC Chiasso 4-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 9, 2021.

Goals: M. Mitrovic (21' o.g.), F. Pereira (40'), M. Konopek (43'), L. Luthi (79').

The match was played at Sportplatz Spitalacker in Bern.