Breidablik W 3–1 SFK 2000 W: Result & Stats

Breidablik W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

SFK 2000 W

B. Þorvaldsdóttir 81', 18'

E. Hasanbegović 30' (OG)

T. Bojat 88'

8/13/2019

UEFA Champions League Women · Qualifying Round - 3Nogometni kamp Reprezentacije BiH

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Breidablik W76%

×Draw14%

SFK 2000 W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Breidablik WExpected goals in this matchSFK 2000 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.04

Breidablik W

3.00

SFK 2000 W

1.04

Breidablik W creates 188% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

0.33

1.75

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Breidablik W

2.67

SFK 2000 W

0.33

allows per match

Breidablik W

1.75

SFK 2000 W

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breidablik W+0.00on par

SFK 2000 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik W ↓

SFK 2000 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Breidablik W or draw

90%

Breidablik W or SFK 2000 W

86%

Draw or SFK 2000 W

24%

Winning margin

Breidablik W wins by 2+

56%

SFK 2000 W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Breidablik W 1+ goals

95%

Breidablik W 2+ goals

79%

Breidablik W 3+ goals

56%

SFK 2000 W 1+ goals

65%

SFK 2000 W 2+ goals

28%

SFK 2000 W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Breidablik W (draw refunded)

88%

SFK 2000 W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

SFK 2000 W away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik W attack 2.67 + SFK 2000 W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.00

SFK 2000 W attack 0.33 + Breidablik W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Breidablik W scores more

76%

level

14%

SFK 2000 W scores more

10%

Breidablik W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Breidablik W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

B. Þorvaldsdóttir

30'

E. HasanbegovićOwn goal

61'

S. Nedić← S. Bektaš

71'

T. Bojat← J. Đoković

74'

F. Shala← Hildur Antonsdóttir

79'

B. Ásmundsdóttir← K. Vilhjálmsdóttir

81'

B. Þorvaldsdóttir

84'

H. Hákonardóttir← K. Árnadóttir

84'

A. Krajnić← A. Kuć

88'

T. Bojat

Breidablik

SFK

1

🥅

8

15

24

10

5

▼

Bektaš

7

▼

Đoković

11

▼

14

19

17

1

8

21

▼

Antonsdót

27

Magnúsdót

7

Albertsdó

18

▼

Árnadótti

16

Jóhannsdó

9

▼

Vilhjálms

10

⚽2

Þorvaldsd

13

Arnadótti

20

Gunnlaugs

Manager: T. Halldórsson

74'▲F. Shala←▼Hildur Antonsdóttir

79'▲B. Ásmundsdóttir←▼K. Vilhjálmsdóttir

84'▲H. Hákonardóttir←▼K. Árnadóttir

Breidablik W substitutes

11Shala4Ásmundsdóttir24Hákonardóttir2Steinarsdóttir19Arnarsdóttir22Þórhallsdóttir26Gudlaugsdóttir

Manager: S. Hurem

61'▲S. Nedić←▼S. Bektaš

71'▲T. Bojat←▼J. Đoković

84'▲A. Krajnić←▼A. Kuć

SFK 2000 W substitutes

13Nedić9Bojat18Krajnić6Crnjak12Hodzic20Limanović22Džaferović