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Breidablik W vs Osijek W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Breidablik W
Breidablik W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Osijek W
Osijek W
9/9/2021UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundKópavogsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Breidablik W58%
×Draw20%
Osijek W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breidablik W
2.33
Osijek W
1.38

Breidablik W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Breidablik W
2.67
Osijek W
1.00

allows per match

Breidablik W
1.75
Osijek W
2.00

finishing

Breidablik W+0.00on par
Osijek W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik W ↓

Osijek W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Breidablik W or draw
78%
Breidablik W or Osijek W
80%
Draw or Osijek W
42%

Winning margin

Breidablik W wins by 2+
37%
Osijek W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Breidablik W 1+ goals
90%
Breidablik W 2+ goals
67%
Breidablik W 3+ goals
41%
Osijek W 1+ goals
75%
Osijek W 2+ goals
40%
Osijek W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Breidablik W (draw refunded)
73%
Osijek W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Osijek W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik W attack 2.67 + Osijek W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Osijek W attack 1.00 + Breidablik W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Breidablik W scores more
58%
level
20%
Osijek W scores more
22%

Breidablik W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Breidablik W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Breidablik W vs Osijek W

Breidablik W beat Osijek W 3-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 9, 2021.

The match was played at Kópavogsvöllur in Kópavogur.