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Breidablik vs Zorya Luhansk — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Breidablik
Breidablik
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
10/5/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Laugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Breidablik60%
×Draw21%
Zorya Luhansk19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breidablik
2.09
Zorya Luhansk
1.08

Breidablik creates 94% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Breidablik
1.75
Zorya Luhansk
0.86

allows per match

Breidablik
1.31
Zorya Luhansk
2.43

finishing

Breidablik+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Breidablik or draw
81%
Breidablik or Zorya Luhansk
79%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
40%

Winning margin

Breidablik wins by 2+
37%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Breidablik 1+ goals
88%
Breidablik 2+ goals
62%
Breidablik 3+ goals
34%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
66%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
29%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Breidablik (draw refunded)
76%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik attack 1.75 + Zorya Luhansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.09

Zorya Luhansk attack 0.86 + Breidablik defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Breidablik scores more
60%
level
21%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
19%

Breidablik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Breidablik 0–1 Zorya Luhansk

Zorya Luhansk beat Breidablik 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavík.