Breidablik 4–0 Vestri: Result & Stats | Úrvalsdeild

Breidablik

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vestri

F. Gbadamosi 90+4' (OG)

D. Fjeldsted 85'

H. Gunnlaugsson 63' (pen)

V. Einarsson 51'

4/13/2024

Úrvalsdeild · Round 2Kópavogsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Breidablik58%

×Draw21%

Vestri22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BreidablikExpected goals in this matchVestri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.23

Breidablik

2.13

Vestri

1.23

Breidablik creates 73% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

2.38

creates per match

0.95

1.50

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Breidablik

2.38

Vestri

0.95

allows per match

Breidablik

1.50

Vestri

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breidablik+0.00on par

Vestri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik ↓

Vestri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Breidablik or draw

78%

Breidablik or Vestri

79%

Draw or Vestri

42%

Winning margin

Breidablik wins by 2+

35%

Vestri wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Breidablik 1+ goals

88%

Breidablik 2+ goals

63%

Breidablik 3+ goals

35%

Vestri 1+ goals

71%

Vestri 2+ goals

35%

Vestri 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Breidablik (draw refunded)

73%

Vestri (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Vestri away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik attack 2.38 + Vestri defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.13

Vestri attack 0.95 + Breidablik defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Breidablik scores more

58%

level

21%

Vestri scores more

22%

Breidablik at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

N. Gil

25'

V. Tufegdzic

42'

E. Gardarsson

51'

V. Einarsson↳ J. Svanþórsson

56'

H. Gunnlaugsson

63'

T. Ibrahimagic← Nacho Gil

63'

A. Bjarnason← V. Tufegdžić

63'

H. GunnlaugssonPenalty

65'

K. Kristinsson← B. Stokke

66'

D. Obbekjær← V. Margeirsson

67'

G. Svavarsson← S. Fall

75'

E. Baldvinsson

77'

Í. Þorvaldsson← A. Bjarnason

78'

T. King← B. Warén

81'

K. Steindorsson

82'

P. Johannesen← K. Steindórsson

82'

D. Fjeldsted← J. Svanþórsson

84'

I. Balde

84'

T. King

85'

D. Fjeldsted

89'

T. Ibrahimagic

90+4'

F. GbadamosiOwn goal

Breidablik

Vestri

30

32

22

3

77

▼

Fall

20

Gertsen

10

▼

Gil

11

▼

Warén

4

🥅

Gbadamosi

6

Baldé

7

▼

1

4

30

7

⚽

Gunnlaugs

21

▼

Margeirss

11

▼

Bjarnason

8

⚽

Einarsson

14

A

▼

Svanþórss

24

Jónsson

10

▼

Steindórs

20

▼

Stokke

Manager: H. Árnason

65'▲K. Kristinsson←▼B. Stokke

66'▲D. Obbekjær←▼V. Margeirsson

77'▲Í. Þorvaldsson←▼A. Bjarnason

82'▲P. Johannesen←▼K. Steindórsson

82'▲D. Fjeldsted←▼J. Svanþórsson

Breidablik substitutes

23Kristinsson2Obbekjær22Þorvaldsson9Johannesen16Fjeldsted25Gunnarsson12Bragason

Manager: D. Lamude

63'▲T. Ibrahimagic←▼Nacho Gil

63'▲A. Bjarnason←▼V. Tufegdžić

67'▲G. Svavarsson←▼S. Fall

78'▲T. King←▼B. Warén

Vestri substitutes

21Ibrahimagic9Bjarnason15Svavarsson13King1Steinarsson19Bjarnason26Hjaltason