Breidablik 2–1 Shamrock Rovers: Result & Stats

Breidablik

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shamrock Rovers

H. Gunnlaugsson 57'

J. Svanþórsson 16'

G. Burke 65' (pen)

7/18/2023

UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying RoundKópavogsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Breidablik76%

×Draw17%

Shamrock Rovers6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BreidablikExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.42

Breidablik

2.08

Shamrock Rovers

0.42

Breidablik creates 395% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

0.17

0.67

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Breidablik

2.33

Shamrock Rovers

0.17

allows per match

Breidablik

0.67

Shamrock Rovers

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breidablik+0.00on par

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik ↓

Shamrock Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Breidablik or draw

94%

Breidablik or Shamrock Rovers

83%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers

24%

Winning margin

Breidablik wins by 2+

51%

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Breidablik 1+ goals

87%

Breidablik 2+ goals

61%

Breidablik 3+ goals

34%

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

34%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

7%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Breidablik (draw refunded)

92%

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 0.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik attack 2.33 + Shamrock Rovers defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Shamrock Rovers attack 0.17 + Breidablik defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Breidablik scores more

76%

level

17%

Shamrock Rovers scores more

6%

Breidablik at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

J. Svanþórsson↳ O. Sigurjónsson

57'

H. Gunnlaugsson↳ J. Svanþórsson

65'

G. BurkePenalty

70'

D. Watts← M. Poom

70'

A. Greene← R. Towell

75'

Viktor Karl Einarsson

78'

J. Kenny← G. Burke

81'

Á. Hlynsson← J. Svanþórsson

81'

D. Ingvarsson← A. Sigurðarson

86'

L. Grace← R. Finn

88'

K. Olsen← K. Steindórsson

88'

A. Aðalsteinsson← A. Yeoman

Statistics

BreidablikShamrock

Overview

4Corners7

Discipline

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0