Breidablik 0–0 KuPS: Result & Stats

Breidablik

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

KuPS

10/23/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Laugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Breidablik46%

×Draw26%

KuPS28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BreidablikExpected goals in this matchKuPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.08

Breidablik

1.45

KuPS

1.08

Breidablik creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

1.75

creates per match

0.85

1.31

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Breidablik

1.75

KuPS

0.85

allows per match

Breidablik

1.31

KuPS

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breidablik+0.00on par

KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik ↓

KuPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Breidablik or draw

72%

Breidablik or KuPS

74%

Draw or KuPS

54%

Winning margin

Breidablik wins by 2+

22%

KuPS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Breidablik 1+ goals

77%

Breidablik 2+ goals

42%

Breidablik 3+ goals

18%

KuPS 1+ goals

66%

KuPS 2+ goals

29%

KuPS 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Breidablik (draw refunded)

62%

KuPS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

KuPS away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik attack 1.75 + KuPS defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.45

KuPS attack 0.85 + Breidablik defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Breidablik scores more

46%

level

26%

KuPS scores more

28%

Breidablik at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Kreidl

KuPS · G

8.2

Match Events

46'

M. Toure← P. Golubickas

46'

C. Antwi← B. Armah

59'

T. Ulfarsson← T. Thomsen

59'

S. Pasanen← D. Arifi

64'

A. Sadiku← P. Pennanen

72'

O. Omarsson← A. Thorsteinsson

72'

K. Steindorsson← V. Einarsson

72'

A. Bjarnason← D. Ingvarsson

77'

J. Luyeye-Lutumba← P. Parzyszek

90'

Kristinn Steindorsson

90+2'

Mohamed Toure

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BreidablikKuPS

Overview

44%Possession56%

16Total Shots8

1.86Expected Goals (xG)1.05

10Corners6

6Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots8

3On Target2

11Off Target4

2Blocked2

12Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

44%Possession56%

417Total Passes568

335Accurate Passes484

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.34Goals Prevented0.34

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1