Breidablik 4–2 KR Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Breidablik

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

KR Reykjavik

B. Stokke 47', 42'

H. Gunnlaugsson 38'

K. Steindórsson 22'

L. Rae 70', 43'

7/21/2024

Úrvalsdeild · Round 15Kópavogsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Breidablik51%

×Draw20%

KR Reykjavik30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BreidablikExpected goals in this matchKR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.83

Breidablik

2.41

KR Reykjavik

1.83

Breidablik creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

2.38

creates per match

2.16

1.50

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Breidablik

2.38

KR Reykjavik

2.16

allows per match

Breidablik

1.50

KR Reykjavik

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breidablik+0.00on par

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik ↓

KR Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Breidablik or draw

70%

Breidablik or KR Reykjavik

80%

Draw or KR Reykjavik

49%

Winning margin

Breidablik wins by 2+

31%

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Breidablik 1+ goals

91%

Breidablik 2+ goals

69%

Breidablik 3+ goals

43%

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

84%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

54%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Breidablik (draw refunded)

63%

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

KR Reykjavik away — creates 2.16, concedes 2.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik attack 2.38 + KR Reykjavik defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.41

KR Reykjavik attack 2.16 + Breidablik defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Breidablik scores more

51%

level

20%

KR Reykjavik scores more

30%

Breidablik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Sigurdsson

22'

K. Steindórsson↳ A. Bjarnason

36'

B. Stokke← A. Sigurðarson

38'

H. Gunnlaugsson↳ V. Einarsson

40'

K. Steindorsson

42'

B. Stokke↳ A. Bjarnason

43'

L. Rae↳ A. Andrésson

47'

B. Stokke↳ H. Gunnlaugsson

49'

R. Gunnarsson

62'

A. Aðalsteinsson← A. Yeoman

62'

A. Jónsson← K. Jónsson

70'

L. Rae↳ E. Wöhler

90'

A. Jonsson

90+1'

E. Bjarnason

Breidablik

KR

12

Smit

3

A

30

25

16

11

29

8

17

⚽2

Rae

19

A

Wöhler

9

Andrésson

1

Einarsson

19

▼

Jónsson

4

Muminović

30

▼

Yeoman

7

⚽A

Gunnlaugs

21

Margeirss

6

▼

Sigurðars

11

A

Bjarnason

8

A

Einarsson

10

⚽

Steindórs

23

Kristinss

Manager: H. Árnason

36'▲B. Stokke←▼A. Sigurðarson

62'▲A. Aðalsteinsson←▼A. Yeoman

62'▲A. Jónsson←▼K. Jónsson

Breidablik substitutes

20Stokke5Aðalsteinsson24Jónsson2Obbekjær9Johannesen16Fjeldsted12Bragason

Manager: P. Pálmason

KR Reykjavik substitutes

45Guðmundsson1Ingólfsson4Bjarnason7Pálmason26Pálmason20Guðmundsson47Andrésson