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Breidablik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Breidablik
Breidablik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
9/15/2025ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 22Kópavogsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Breidablik55%
×Draw21%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breidablik
2.19
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.41

Breidablik creates 55% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

creates per match

Breidablik
2.38
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.32

allows per match

Breidablik
1.50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00

finishing

Breidablik+0.00on par
IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Breidablik or draw
76%
Breidablik or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
79%
Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
45%

Winning margin

Breidablik wins by 2+
33%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Breidablik 1+ goals
89%
Breidablik 2+ goals
64%
Breidablik 3+ goals
37%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals
76%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals
41%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Breidablik (draw refunded)
69%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik attack 2.38 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.32 + Breidablik defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Breidablik scores more
55%
level
21%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more
24%

Breidablik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Úrvalsdeild: Breidablik 1–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Breidablik and IBV Vestmannaeyjar drew 1-1 in Úrvalsdeild on September 15, 2025.

The match was played at Kópavogsvöllur in Kópavogur.