Breidablik 4–5 FH hafnarfjordur: Result & Stats

Breidablik

FT

4 – 5

HT: 2 – 1

FH hafnarfjordur

A. Orrason 89'

K. Kristinsson 84'

D. Ingvarsson 36', 26'

S. Hallsson 67'

B. Bjarkason 58', 55'

B. Sverrisson 47'

K. Finnbogason 33'

8/17/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 19Kópavogsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Breidablik55%

×Draw20%

FH hafnarfjordur25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BreidablikExpected goals in this matchFH hafnarfjordur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.56

Breidablik

2.34

FH hafnarfjordur

1.56

Breidablik creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

2.38

creates per match

1.63

1.50

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Breidablik

2.38

FH hafnarfjordur

1.63

allows per match

Breidablik

1.50

FH hafnarfjordur

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breidablik+0.00on par

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Breidablik or draw

75%

Breidablik or FH hafnarfjordur

80%

Draw or FH hafnarfjordur

45%

Winning margin

Breidablik wins by 2+

34%

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Breidablik 1+ goals

90%

Breidablik 2+ goals

67%

Breidablik 3+ goals

41%

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

79%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

46%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Breidablik (draw refunded)

68%

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik attack 2.38 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.34

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.63 + Breidablik defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Breidablik scores more

55%

level

20%

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

25%

Breidablik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

D. Ingvarsson↳ K. Steindorsson

33'

K. Finnbogason↳ K. Halldorsson

36'

D. Ingvarsson↳ D. Muminovic

47'

B. Sverrisson↳ K. Halldorsson

54'

B. Bjarkason← K. Finnbogason

55'

B. Bjarkason↳ B. Bodvarsson

58'

B. Bjarkason

62'

O. Omarsson← A. Bjarnason

62'

K. Jonsson← G. Hallsson

62'

K. Kristinsson← D. Ingvarsson

62'

G. Magnusson← T. Thomsen

67'

S. Hallsson↳ B. Jonsson

71'

V. Einarsson← K. Steindorsson

75'

K. Kristinsson

77'

G. Gunnarsson← B. Sverrisson

77'

J. Arnarsson← T. Robertsson

84'

K. Kristinsson↳ V. Einarsson

88'

S. Hallsson

89'

A. Orrason↳ K. Jonsson

90+5'

B. Brynjolfsson← S. Hallsson

Breidablik

FH

13

Rosenorn

2

A

Jonsson

21

A

Bodvarsso

23

▼

22

4

37

45

⚽

▼

Finnbogas

9

⚽

▼

Hallsson

10

⚽

▼

Sverrisso

7

A

Halldorss

1

Einarsson

4

⚽

Orrason

29

▼

Hallsson

6

Jonsson

44

A

Muminovic

21

Margeirss

11

▼

Bjarnason

15

Thorstein

77

▼

Thomsen

10

A

▼

Steindors

18

⚽2

▼

Ingvarsso

Manager: Halldór Árnason

62'▲O. Omarsson←▼A. Bjarnason

62'▲K. Jonsson←▼G. Hallsson

62'▲K. Kristinsson←▼D. Ingvarsson

62'▲G. Magnusson←▼T. Thomsen

71'▲V. Einarsson←▼K. Steindorsson

Breidablik substitutes

12Bragason7Gunnlaugsson8Einarsson9Omarsson19Jonsson23Kristinsson26Kotlevs31Gunnleifsson99Magnusson

Manager: Heimir Guðjónsson

54'▲B. Bjarkason←▼K. Finnbogason

77'▲G. Gunnarsson←▼B. Sverrisson

77'▲J. Arnarsson←▼T. Robertsson

90+5'▲B. Brynjolfsson←▼S. Hallsson

FH hafnarfjordur substitutes

24Arnarsson6Gunnarsson11Bjarkason16Brynjolfsson18Ingvarsson27Arnarsson34Steinbjornsson35Purisevic38Gudmundsson