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Bregalnica Štip vs Voska Sport — First League 2019

Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
12/3/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Bregalnica Štip52%
×Draw25%
Voska Sport23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bregalnica Štip
1.60
Voska Sport
0.99

Bregalnica Štip creates 62% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 33 away

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.37
Voska Sport
0.88

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.10
Voska Sport
1.82

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw
77%
Bregalnica Štip or Voska Sport
75%
Draw or Voska Sport
48%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
27%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
80%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
47%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
22%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
63%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
26%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
69%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 1.37 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more
52%
level
25%
Voska Sport scores more
23%

Bregalnica Štip at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bregalnica Štip vs Voska Sport

Bregalnica Štip and Voska Sport drew 2-2 in First League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Štip.