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Bregalnica Štip vs Tikveš — First League 2019

Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tikveš
Tikveš
4/2/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bregalnica Štip44%
×Draw27%
Tikveš29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bregalnica Štip
1.39
Tikveš
1.08

Bregalnica Štip creates 29% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 80 away

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.37
Tikveš
1.05

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.10
Tikveš
1.41

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par
Tikveš+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Tikveš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw
71%
Bregalnica Štip or Tikveš
73%
Draw or Tikveš
56%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
21%
Tikveš wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
75%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
40%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
16%
Tikveš 1+ goals
66%
Tikveš 2+ goals
29%
Tikveš 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
60%
Tikveš (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Tikveš away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 1.37 + Tikveš defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tikveš attack 1.05 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more
44%
level
27%
Tikveš scores more
29%

Bregalnica Štip at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Bregalnica Štip 0–0 Tikveš

Bregalnica Štip and Tikveš drew 0-0 in First League on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Štip.