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Bregalnica Štip vs Rosoman — Second League 2019

Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Rosoman
Rosoman
4/17/2021Second LeagueSecond League · East - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bregalnica Štip82%
×Draw12%
Rosoman6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bregalnica Štip
3.01
Rosoman
0.72

Bregalnica Štip creates 318% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip
2.52
Rosoman
0.86

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip
0.58
Rosoman
3.50

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par
Rosoman+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Rosoman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw
94%
Bregalnica Štip or Rosoman
88%
Draw or Rosoman
18%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
63%
Rosoman wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
95%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
80%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
56%
Rosoman 1+ goals
51%
Rosoman 2+ goals
16%
Rosoman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
93%
Rosoman (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.58 · 52 matches

Rosoman away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 2.52 + Rosoman defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.01

Rosoman attack 0.86 + Bregalnica Štip defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more
82%
level
12%
Rosoman scores more
6%

Bregalnica Štip at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Bregalnica Štip 5–1 Rosoman

Bregalnica Štip beat Rosoman 5-1 in Second League on April 17, 2021.