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Bregalnica Štip vs Pitu Guli — Second League 2019

Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
FT
5 – 0
Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
11/10/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bregalnica Štip82%
×Draw12%
Pitu Guli6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bregalnica Štip
3.01
Pitu Guli
0.73

Bregalnica Štip creates 312% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip
2.52
Pitu Guli
0.88

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip
0.58
Pitu Guli
3.50

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par
Pitu Guli+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Pitu Guli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw
94%
Bregalnica Štip or Pitu Guli
88%
Draw or Pitu Guli
18%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
63%
Pitu Guli wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
95%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
80%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
56%
Pitu Guli 1+ goals
52%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
17%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
93%
Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.58 · 52 matches

Pitu Guli away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 2.52 + Pitu Guli defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.01

Pitu Guli attack 0.88 + Bregalnica Štip defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more
82%
level
12%
Pitu Guli scores more
6%

Bregalnica Štip at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Bregalnica Štip 5–0 Pitu Guli

Bregalnica Štip beat Pitu Guli 5-0 in Second League on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Štip.