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Brederis vs Lustenau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Brederis
Brederis
FT
0 – 3
Lustenau
Lustenau
8/31/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 5Sportplatz Meiningen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Brederis25%
×Draw20%
Lustenau55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brederis
1.52
Lustenau
2.31

Lustenau creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

Brederis
1.53
Lustenau
1.68

allows per match

Brederis
2.93
Lustenau
1.52

finishing

Brederis+0.00on par
Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brederis ↓

Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brederis or draw
45%
Brederis or Lustenau
80%
Draw or Lustenau
75%

Winning margin

Brederis wins by 2+
11%
Lustenau wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Brederis 1+ goals
78%
Brederis 2+ goals
45%
Brederis 3+ goals
20%
Lustenau 1+ goals
90%
Lustenau 2+ goals
67%
Lustenau 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Brederis (draw refunded)
31%
Lustenau (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brederis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

Lustenau away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brederis attack 1.53 + Lustenau defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lustenau attack 1.68 + Brederis defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brederis scores more
25%
level
20%
Lustenau scores more
55%

Lustenau at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brederis vs Lustenau

Lustenau beat Brederis 3-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Meiningen in Meiningen.