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Brederis vs Hard — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Brederis
Brederis
FT
1 – 2
Hard
Hard
11/5/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 17Sportplatz Meiningen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Brederis31%
×Draw21%
Hard48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brederis
1.74
Hard
2.19

Hard creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Brederis
1.53
Hard
1.45

allows per match

Brederis
2.93
Hard
1.95

finishing

Brederis+0.00on par
Hard+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brederis ↓

Hard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Brederis or draw
52%
Brederis or Hard
79%
Draw or Hard
69%

Winning margin

Brederis wins by 2+
15%
Hard wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Brederis 1+ goals
82%
Brederis 2+ goals
52%
Brederis 3+ goals
25%
Hard 1+ goals
89%
Hard 2+ goals
64%
Hard 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Brederis (draw refunded)
39%
Hard (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brederis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

Hard away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.95 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brederis attack 1.53 + Hard defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Hard attack 1.45 + Brederis defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brederis scores more
31%
level
21%
Hard scores more
48%

Hard at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brederis vs Hard

Hard beat Brederis 2-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Meiningen in Meiningen.