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Brederis vs Fussach — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Brederis
Brederis
FT
3 – 1
Fussach
Fussach
10/8/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 13Sportplatz Meiningen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Brederis33%
×Draw21%
Fussach47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brederis
1.83
Fussach
2.20

Fussach creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 47 away

creates per match

Brederis
1.53
Fussach
1.47

allows per match

Brederis
2.93
Fussach
2.13

finishing

Brederis+0.00on par
Fussach+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brederis ↓

Fussach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Brederis or draw
53%
Brederis or Fussach
79%
Draw or Fussach
67%

Winning margin

Brederis wins by 2+
17%
Fussach wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Brederis 1+ goals
84%
Brederis 2+ goals
54%
Brederis 3+ goals
28%
Fussach 1+ goals
89%
Fussach 2+ goals
64%
Fussach 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Brederis (draw refunded)
41%
Fussach (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brederis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

Fussach away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brederis attack 1.53 + Fussach defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Fussach attack 1.47 + Brederis defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brederis scores more
33%
level
21%
Fussach scores more
47%

Fussach at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fussach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Brederis 3–1 Fussach

Brederis beat Fussach 3-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Meiningen in Meiningen.