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Brederis vs Bezau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Brederis
Brederis
FT
4 – 2
Bezau
Bezau
9/24/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 11Sportplatz Meiningen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Brederis37%
×Draw21%
Bezau42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brederis
2.00
Bezau
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Brederis
1.53
Bezau
1.30

allows per match

Brederis
2.93
Bezau
2.46

finishing

Brederis+0.00on par
Bezau+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brederis ↓

Bezau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Brederis or draw
58%
Brederis or Bezau
79%
Draw or Bezau
63%

Winning margin

Brederis wins by 2+
20%
Bezau wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Brederis 1+ goals
86%
Brederis 2+ goals
59%
Brederis 3+ goals
32%
Bezau 1+ goals
88%
Bezau 2+ goals
62%
Bezau 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Brederis (draw refunded)
47%
Bezau (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brederis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

Bezau away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brederis attack 1.53 + Bezau defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bezau attack 1.30 + Brederis defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brederis scores more
37%
level
21%
Bezau scores more
42%

Bezau at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bezau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brederis vs Bezau

Brederis beat Bezau 4-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Meiningen in Meiningen.