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Brederis vs Austria Lustenau II — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Brederis
Brederis
FT
0 – 3
Austria Lustenau II
Austria Lustenau II
9/10/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 9Sportplatz Meiningen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Brederis33%
×Draw20%
Austria Lustenau II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brederis
1.89
Austria Lustenau II
2.24

Austria Lustenau II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

creates per match

Brederis
1.53
Austria Lustenau II
1.54

allows per match

Brederis
2.93
Austria Lustenau II
2.24

finishing

Brederis+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brederis ↓

Austria Lustenau II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Brederis or draw
54%
Brederis or Austria Lustenau II
80%
Draw or Austria Lustenau II
67%

Winning margin

Brederis wins by 2+
17%
Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Brederis 1+ goals
85%
Brederis 2+ goals
56%
Brederis 3+ goals
29%
Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals
89%
Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals
65%
Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Brederis (draw refunded)
42%
Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brederis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

Austria Lustenau II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brederis attack 1.53 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

Austria Lustenau II attack 1.54 + Brederis defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brederis scores more
33%
level
20%
Austria Lustenau II scores more
46%

Austria Lustenau II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Austria Lustenau II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brederis 0 – 3 Austria Lustenau II

Austria Lustenau II beat Brederis 3-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Meiningen in Meiningen.