Břeclav 4–1 Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Břeclav

FT

4 – 1

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

10/10/2020

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 10Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Břeclav54%

×Draw22%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BřeclavExpected goals in this matchBystřice nad Pernštejnem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.27

Břeclav

2.00

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.27

Břeclav creates 57% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 37 away

1.39

creates per match

1.19

1.36

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Břeclav

1.39

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.19

allows per match

Břeclav

1.36

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw

76%

Břeclav or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

78%

Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

46%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+

32%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals

86%

Břeclav 2+ goals

59%

Břeclav 3+ goals

32%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals

72%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals

36%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)

69%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.39 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Břeclav defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Břeclav scores more

54%

level

22%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more

24%

Břeclav at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Břeclav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff