Brechin 5–0 Vale of Leithen: Result & Stats

Brechin

5 – 0

Vale of Leithen

9/18/2021

FA Cup · 1st RoundGlebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brechin73%

×Draw14%

Vale of Leithen13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrechinExpected goals in this matchVale of Leithen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.21

1.31

Brechin

3.21

Vale of Leithen

1.31

Brechin creates 145% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.09

creates per match

1.17

1.45

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Brechin

2.09

Vale of Leithen

1.17

allows per match

Brechin

1.45

Vale of Leithen

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par

Vale of Leithen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Vale of Leithen →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Brechin or draw

87%

Brechin or Vale of Leithen

86%

Draw or Vale of Leithen

27%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+

54%

Vale of Leithen wins by 2+

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals

96%

Brechin 2+ goals

82%

Brechin 3+ goals

60%

Vale of Leithen 1+ goals

73%

Vale of Leithen 2+ goals

38%

Vale of Leithen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)

85%

Vale of Leithen (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Vale of Leithen away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 2.09 + Vale of Leithen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.21

Vale of Leithen attack 1.17 + Brechin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Brechin scores more

73%

level

14%

Vale of Leithen scores more

13%

Brechin at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff