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Brechin vs Turriff United — League #730 2026

Brechin
Brechin
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Turriff United
Turriff United
E. Spark 79'
D. Handling 68' (pen), 47', 22'
G. McGrath 15'
D. Stuart 28'
3/23/2024League #730League #730 · Highland League - 32The Carnegie Fuels Stadium at Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brechin70%
×Draw19%
Turriff United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
2.04
Turriff United
0.63

Brechin creates 224% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Brechin
2.27
Turriff United
0.80

allows per match

Brechin
0.45
Turriff United
1.80

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Turriff United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Turriff United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
90%
Brechin or Turriff United
81%
Draw or Turriff United
30%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
45%
Turriff United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
87%
Brechin 2+ goals
60%
Brechin 3+ goals
33%
Turriff United 1+ goals
47%
Turriff United 2+ goals
13%
Turriff United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
87%
Turriff United (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Turriff United away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 2.27 + Turriff United defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.04

Turriff United attack 0.80 + Brechin defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Brechin scores more
70%
level
19%
Turriff United scores more
10%

Brechin at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
G. McGrath
22'
D. Handling
28'
D. Stuart
47'
D. Handling
68'
D. HandlingPenalty
79'
E. Spark

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brechin vs Turriff United

Brechin beat Turriff United 5-1 in League #730 on March 23, 2024.

Goals: G. McGrath (15'), D. Handling (22', 47', 68' pen), D. Stuart (28'), E. Spark (79').

The match was played at The Carnegie Fuels Stadium at Glebe Park in Brechin.